Rhythm Report

by NBA Trends

A deep dive into NBA offensive and defensive consistency. Which teams run like clockwork, and which ones ride the roller coaster?

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Methodology

Data Source & Smoothing

Game-by-game offensive and defensive ratings are sourced from NBA.com via the nba_api library. Raw ratings are smoothed using a 5-game rolling average to reveal underlying trends while filtering out single-game noise.

Consistency (Rugosity)

Consistency is measured using rugosity—a metric borrowed from ecology and geography that quantifies how "jagged" or volatile a time series is. Rugosity is calculated as the arc-to-chord ratio: the total path length of the rating curve divided by the straight-line distance from start to end.

Rugosity Formula: Rugosity = Path Length / Chord Length

Path Length: Σ √[(xᵢ₊₁ - xᵢ)² + (yᵢ₊₁ - yᵢ)²] for i = 1 to n-1

Chord Length: √[(xₙ - x₁)² + (yₙ - y₁)²]

Interpretation:

Rugosity = 1.0 — Perfectly straight line (maximum consistency)
Rugosity < 1.15 — Highly consistent performance
Rugosity 1.15 - 1.35 — Moderate variation
Rugosity > 1.35 — Volatile, unpredictable performance

Tier Classification

Teams are grouped into tiers based on net rating (offensive rating minus defensive rating). Thresholds are set to create meaningful competitive groupings:

Contenders: Net Rating > +6.0
Legit Threats: Net Rating > +3.5
Dangerous: Net Rating > +1.5
Play-In: Net Rating > -1.5
Up-and-Coming: Net Rating > -4.0
Rebuild: Net Rating > -7.0
Tank: Net Rating ≤ -7.0

4D Matrix Classification

Teams are classified using a 4-dimensional matrix based on their position relative to league medians:

Offense Rating: Above or below league median
Defense Rating: Above or below league median (lower is better)
Offensive Consistency: Rugosity above or below median
Defensive Consistency: Rugosity above or below median

This creates 16 possible matrix positions (2⁴), each with a unique label.

Trend Modifiers

Team labels can be modified based on significant trends:

Significant trends (>1σ) add modifiers like (↑O) or (↓D)
Overwhelming trends (>1.5σ) override the matrix label entirely

Team Rankings Data

4D Team Classification Matrix

Teams are positioned in a 4-dimensional space based on Offense Quality, Defense Quality, Offensive Consistency, and Defensive Consistency—each relative to league median. This creates 16 unique team profiles.

Contenders

Legit Threats

Dangerous

Play-In

Up-and-Coming

Rebuild

Tank

How to Read the Matrix

Each cell represents a unique combination of four binary dimensions. The 4-digit code (e.g., 1101) indicates:

Position 1: Offense (1 = above median, 0 = below)
Position 2: Defense (1 = above median/good, 0 = below/bad)
Position 3: Offensive Consistency (1 = consistent, 0 = volatile)
Position 4: Defensive Consistency (1 = consistent, 0 = volatile)

Teams with significant trends show modifiers like (↑O) for improving offense. Overwhelming trends override the matrix label entirely.

Understanding the Numbers

We analyze each team's offensive and defensive ratings over a 10-game rolling window, measuring volatility through turning points and residual variance. A team that swings wildly between elite and poor performances tells a different story than one that steadily improves—or declines.

Explore Any Team

Select a team to view their offensive and defensive trends